Downtown San Diego Real Estate Views

San Diego 2012 Real Estate Outlook

2012-01-06T07:56:00.000-08:00

San Diego 2012 Real Estate Outlook

San Diego Home Forecast 2012 - Opinion on the 2012 San Diego real estate outlook. Why San Diego home values, will still be in decline through at least the first half of 2012. brokerforyou.com Bob Schwartz is a San Diego real estate broker with 30+ years experience. If you own a San Diego home or are planning purchasing San Diego real estate Bob's San Diego 2012 real estate outlook is a must read. View the full post at: San Diego real estate

2011-11-24T14:02:00.001-08:00

Downtown San Diego Real Estate

Downtown San Diego real estate

San Diego real estate broker Bob Schwartz puts his 3 decades of real estate experience to work for YOU! San Diego real estate information for both buyers & sellers of downtown San Diego real estate.

2011-11-23T10:37:00.001-08:00

Are There any Differences in the Way Escrows are Conducted in Northern and Southern California?

Escrow procedures differ between northern and southern California, and certain customs have arisen over time that differ between the north and the south, and even between certain counties of the State. In northern California, most escrows are performed by title insurance companies while in southern California, there is usually a separate escrow and title company involved. Although title companies in southern California as well as anywhere in the State may perform escrows under the exemption in the Financial Code as mentioned above, title companies almost always perform the escrow function of a real estate transaction in northern California. With title companies performing both title and escrow functions in northern California, they ordinarily charge only one fee for both services as opposed to southern California where there are two separate fees charged.

With respect to escrow instructions, in northern California buyers and sellers sign separate, unilateral escrow instructions normally a few days before closing. By comparison, in southern California, buyers and sellers sign joint, bilateral escrow instructions after the purchase contract has been signed and escrow has been opened.

The escrow closing statement is usually referred to differently in both regions of the State as well. In northern California, the closing statement is called the Buyer's Statement or Seller's Statement depending on the recipient, while in southern California the closing statement is most commonly referred to as the Final Closing Statement, Settlement Statement, or HUD-1.

The division of escrow and title charges also differs. In southern California, sellers usually pay for title insurance and the documentary county transfer tax, and split the escrow fee with the buyer. In northern California, there are some counties where buyers and sellers split title insurance and escrow charges equally, but in other counties they may pay different percentages of the total cost. An example would be where sellers pay 75% and buyers pay 25%. However, even though it might be customary for fees to be paid in a specific way in an escrow transaction, it ultimately is decided by agreement between the parties. If you have questions about the escrow process and procedures, ask your escrow officer at the beginning of an escrow transaction.

Downtown San Diego real estate

San Diego 2011 Real Estate Forecast

2011-01-11T10:23:00.000-08:00

Amazingly in San Diego, California, is the local media talking-heads still go back to the same industry spokespeople to get their 60 second optimistic new year outlook for the 6:00PM news.

Naturally, I’d like to join this optimistic, self-promoting crowd, but sorry, I have to tell it like I see it.

The title of this article says it all. After the $8,000, Federal and California home buyer credits expired, the local San Diego real estate market entered into a double-dip continued erosion of home values.

After the homebuyer credits concluded, San Diego home values saw modest price appreciation. Now even this modest appreciation has disappeared. Even more troubling is that the resale home sales volume has been dropping at double digit rates for the last few months. Just from April to May the western states sales dropped a reported 20.9%. Huge double-digit declines in home sales are a major red flag that cannot be ignored.

When will the government learn that you cannot artificially create lasting demand? (Statistics show the vast majority of government housing programs, costing billions, are outright failures and have only prolonged our malaise.) I believe the best thing the government can do is to stay out of the housing market and let the open market clean up the mess.

Think about this: Bernanke initially spent almost $2 trillion to drive long-term interest rates down.

The $600 billion QE2 has no effect to date. Actually, interest rates have moved up substantially. There are a few months left, but I am sure Bernanke will use the "it would have been much worse" argument and declare success. The reality is that there will be no QE3, not with Ron Paul now as the watchdog of the Fed.

Our aging population, combined with a decreased standard of living can't equate to housing starts comparable to prior generations. I think our government’s relentless destruction of the middle class is making this different from prior real estate cycles.

Foreclosure moratoriums are beginning to expire. I believe the banks will push to clean up their portfolios through increased foreclosures.

Except for cash buyers, home pricing is derived from the affordability of the monthly payment. Should interest rates and taxes go up (a good bet), the purchase price will have to come down to establish a market. Construction labor is already about as cheap as you can get it and inflation for materials is already present. This spells very bad news for homebuilders.

As far as pent-up buyer demand goes, the gurus again have it backwards. It’s not buyer pent-up demand, but seller pent-up demand to unload their homes.

The depth and longevity of this San Diego housing value depression has been imbedded into the consciousness of the usual first wave of home buyers in their late 20’s and early 30’s. The high cost of living in San Diego has been further stressed with continued multiple raises in utilities, increased state taxes/fees, higher education costs and $3.00+ per gallon gas prices. This all equates to over-priced homes in the current world of qualifying for a home mortgage.

I just believe there are major problems with our economy at play that we have never seen before and that will have a deciding call on what happens with housing. I see demand based on finance rather than population at this point.

During the mid 2000's, almost the entire mortgage universe had been refinanced. This included many baby boomers that were in the last half of the 30-year mortgage they took out when they purchased their home. Some of this was hopefully to pay down other expenses and not to maintain their fantasy of the luxury lifestyle. The refinancing bubble that resulted from the irresponsible actions of Greenspan reset the 30-year mortgage clock. All borrowers looked at, was how the refinance lowered their house payment by $X per month, without giving a second thought to the fact that they have also extended the term to a new 30-year loan.

Another round of refinancing occurred when Bernanke pushed rates down to the 4% range. The only borrowers left who have not refinanced are those with no equity and/or are facing foreclosure.

In either case, now many Boomers who are reaching the traditional retirement age, find themselves strapped with 20+ years left on their refinanced mortgages. Instead of preparing for the mortgage burning party that their parents had when that generation retired, they are wondering how they can make house payments on a lower income during retirement.

Since this is the first year of the boomers reaching 65, it is going to be a negative drag on housing for years to come.

For the San Diego and California real estate market we have to contend with our own Cap & Tax laws going into effect in 2011 that will increase utility costs by 20% over the next five and speeding up the loss of manufacturing jobs. We also have a new, old governor who was against proposition 13 which sets a maximum cap on property taxes and will likely propose new massive state taxes to deal with a $25.4 billion budget deficit.

Personally, I do not see any real base building in the San Diego real estate market until 2012. I hope I’m wrong there is an immediate jump in San Diego home appreciation. I have 30+ plus years of residential experience; I wouldn’t argue against me.

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Where Are San Diego California Home Prices Heading?

2010-08-20T08:16:00.000-07:00

San Diego real estate market direction. Where are home values going?

For a no Bull opinion on the San Diego housing market, get a free subscription to the San Diego real estate market blog at:
http://www.brokerforyou.com/brokerforyou

California Real Estate Turnaround?

2008-02-24T22:03:00.000-08:00

According to the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. report released last week, California home prices and sales volumes will also slide into 2009, while some areas of the state experience an even more prolonged downturn.

Jack Kyser, chief economist of the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp, said:
"The housing pains there will remain, probably until 2010."
The statewide median home price last month was down about 17 percent from a year earlier and 5 percent from December, according to DataQuick Information Systems. The statewide median price peaked last spring.
In San Diego, most insiders will agree that the top of the housing market was the summer of 2005.
Century 21 San Diego Realtor

Stimulus Package on Way To Present

2008-02-07T22:58:00.000-08:00

The Senate passed their version of an economic stimulus package today, Thursday, February 07, 2008. The Senate version expands rebate checks for seniors and disabled veterans and includes the same increases to the conforming loan limits for both GSE and FHA found in the House stimulus package. The House just passed the Senate version of the bill and it will now be sent to the White House. The President is expected to sign the legislation by the end of next week, ahead of the Congressional self-appointed deadline of February 15^th. The increase in the conforming loan limits will last through 2008, but C.A.R. and NAR continue to lobby for FHA and GSE reform, making these increases permanent.

The U.S. House of Representatives passed a stimulus package last week that raised the FHA and conforming loan limits to as high as $729,750 in high-cost areas. By increasing the loan limits, borrowers will see immediate relief with new liquidity in the mortgage market and the nation will see an additional 300,000 home sales. Research shows that an increase in the FHA limit would enable an additional 138,000 Americans to purchase homes, and 200,000 families to refinance their homes safely and affordably.

Increasing the FHA loan limits is critical to bolstering California’s housing market. Current law restricts FHA loans to levels well below the median home price in many areas of the country and caps loans in high cost states at $363,790. These limits are preventing many homebuyers from using FHA to purchase or refinance their loan. The proposed provision will increase FHA loan limits nationwide by raising the floor to $271,050 and the limit to 125% of local median home prices.

Additionally, raising Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s (GSEs) conforming loan limit will provide immediate relief to borrowers and alleviate downward pressure on current housing markets. For instance, increasing the GSE loan limit could result in more than 300,000 additional home sales and strengthen current home prices by 2-3%.

The critical role that GSEs play in providing liquidity to the mortgage market has never been more evident than it is today. The national subprime meltdown has had a dramatic impact on both the cost and availability of mortgages in many markets. Since August 2007, the interest rates for jumbo borrowers have been more than 1 percentage point higher than conforming loans, which can cost homeowners up to $400 month in higher interest payments. San Diego real estate

San Diego Mortgage Rates - HIGHER After Rate Cut!

2007-10-10T20:59:00.000-07:00

As a San Diego Realtor watching San Diego home mortgage rates, it seemed to me that they had actually increased after the 1/2 percent Fed rate cut. To confirm this, I contacted one of San Diego's largest home mortgage lenders. Here is his reply:

Please note that mortgage rates are very VERY individualized, now more than ever. Rates vary based on down payment, FICO score, type of property, and other factors. With that in mind, the "benchmark" that many people use to determine "rates" on a given day is the best rate available for a 30 year fixed rate "conforming" loan. This is a loan amount of up to $417,000 meaning that it is saleable to FNMA or FHLMC.

As you requested, I have priced out the 30 year fixed rate loans for 3 days September 11th (one week before the fed rate cut) September 18th (the day of the fed rate cut) September 25th (one week after the fed rate cut).

You can pretty clearly see that mortgage rates (in anticipation of a rate cut) had already factored Fed action into the pricing models used on September 11th.

Yes, it is true that rates are now actually HIGHER than they were prior to the fed rate cut. Here is the info.. 10 year treasury bond (closing price)
September 11th 4.36%
September 18th 4.48%
September 25th 4.60%

30 year fixed rate mortgages that we offered to our BEST customer on a fully documented loan on the same 3 dates

September 11th 6.00% at a cost of 1 point
September 18th 6.125% at a cost of 1 point
September 25th 6.25% at a cost of 1 point

As always, customers can always choose to take a higher rate for a lower cost, or to pay more points to get a lower interest rate. Ed. note: To contact this San Diego mortgage lender, send me an email. San Diego real estate brokers

12,000 Mortgage Loan Layoffs

2007-09-14T00:18:00.000-07:00

Countrywide, the nation's No. 1 home lender, said yesterday that it would cut as many as 12,000 jobs, or about 20% of its workforce. It said the downturn in the housing market and the credit crunch related to sub-prime loans have created the worst conditions ever seen by the modern mortgage industry.

Countrywide Chairman Angelo Mozilo said in a letter to employees yesterday. "Unfortunately, the only way to accomplish this is to make significant reductions in our workforce, in fact, this current cycle is certainly the most severe in the contemporary history of our industry."

Our first post about possible Countrywide layoffs was 9-26-06 National Home Price Drop..Catching up to San Diego’s Continuing Slide. Our other post about Countrywide was: Subprime Loan Implosion, Subprime Home Mortgage Lenders in Big Trouble, Largest US mortgage lender Takes a Big Foreclosure Hit, #1 US Mortgage Company to Go Bankrupt?, Countrywide Has Started layoffs …Thousands Could Be at Risk

799% Increase in California Home Foreclosures

2007-08-01T08:34:00.000-07:00

Foreclosures hit 17,408 for the three months ended June 30, for an increase of 799 percent from the same period in 2006. These foreclosure numbers well exceed the prior 1996 high.

Rich Toscano, with Pacific Capital Associates in San Diego said: "There will be individual pain for people who made the wrong decisions. We all may end up in a recession."

Tags: foreclosures, San Diego real estate, housing bubble, real estate bubble

San Diego's Top Real Estate Website

2007-07-04T08:52:00.000-07:00

www.brokerforyou.com set a new record for unique visitors to their San Diego website in June 2007.

We are NOT talking website 'hits' here, but just one visit per IP address counted in a 24Hr. period! With the average real estate website running appx. 150 unique visitors per month, www.brokerforyou.com had over 220 times MORE real estate traffic!

Facing foreclosure? 9 options

2007-06-11T06:14:00.000-07:00

Facing foreclosure? 9 options - MSN Money: "Check your options, get help, be realistic -- and most of all, don't dawdle.

By Liz Pulliam Weston

Real estate markets are slowing. Interest rates are ticking up. And the phones are ringing at ByDesign, a Los Angeles-based credit counselor, as homeowners start to panic about not being able to make their mortgage payments.

'The number of people asking for appointments to talk about foreclosure is definitely up,' said Susan Ulaga, the nonprofit service's senior vice president of counseling. Rising rates 'are really putting a crunch' on homeowners with adjustable-rate loans." San Diego downtown condominiums

San Diego market direction

2007-04-01T18:39:00.000-07:00

Visit my new San Diego real estate blog for full info on what is going on in the San Diego real estate market bubble.

You can view the real estate blog at:
http://www.brokerforyou.com/brokerforyou

Search the San Diego MLS

2007-04-01T18:28:00.000-07:00

Search the entire San Diego MLS. Visit:
http://www.brokerforyou.com/san-diego-real-estate-mls-home-listings.htm

N.J. housing is priciest ; Median costs highest in nation

2006-10-05T20:41:00.000-07:00

After a six-year run-up in housing prices, many households in New Jersey are staggering under heavy monthly shelter costs, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. Among mortgage holders, New Jerseyans in 2005 paid the highest median housing costs in the nation $1,938 a month, including mortgage payments, property taxes, home insurance, condo fees and utilities.
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BUILDER CONFIDENCE DECLINES TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE FEBRUARY 1991

2006-09-21T09:35:00.000-07:00

The confidence level of the nation's home builders declined for the eighth consecutive month in September, a reflection of increased sales cancellations and rising inventories of unsold homes, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The seasonally adjusted HMI stands at 30 this month, down three points from August and down 35 points from a year ago. In the West, the HMI has steadily declined since April and now stands at 38. An HMI below 50 indicates more builders view sales conditions as poor versus good. Newer sites: San Diego hotels - San Diego lasik

Housing Prices to Continue to Fall!

2006-09-18T10:49:00.000-07:00

September 18, 2006—Housing prices are expected to continue to have a limited fall throughout 2006, according to testimony submitted by the National Association of Realtors at today’s Senate Banking Committee.
New downtown San Diego condominium site is Palermo homes San Diego.

Housing Starts Drop 5.3 Percent in June

2006-07-27T23:28:00.000-07:00

Housing Starts Drop 5.3 Percent in June
(Washington - July 19, 2006) - Total housing starts dropped 5.3 percent in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.850 million units, according to figures released by the Commerce Department today. This was 11.0 percent below the pace of a year ago.
Single-family housing starts were down 6.5 percent for the month to a pace of 1.486 million units, a 13.8 percent drop from the June 2005 pace. Multifamily housing construction was up 0.3 percent for the month to a seasonally adjusted pace of 364,000 units.
'NAHB's surveys of single-family builders have been showing a steady decline in confidence since the middle of last year, and builders are acting accordingly. They are slowing their production as market conditions and demand cool down,' said David Pressly, president of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Statesville, N.C. "

Home prices could start falling

2006-07-26T07:50:00.000-07:00

USATODAY.com - Home prices could start falling: "Home prices could start falling

By Noelle Knox, USA TODAY
For the first time in more than a decade, home prices could start to fall around the country in coming months, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday after a report showed that sales of existing homes fell in June and the number of homes for sale soared to their highest point since 1997.

Condo prices are already being hit: They fell 2.1% from June last year to a median $226,900 (median means half cost less and half cost more). Prices of single-family homes edged up 1.1% in June to $231,500. With a 6.8-month supply of single-family homes on the market and an eight-month supply of condos, sellers are under more pressure to cut prices, and buyers can be choosy.

David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, said he expects 'price numbers to start deteriorating,' though he still projects home prices will be up 5.3% for the year. "

Home Price Drop for San Diego

2006-07-13T17:04:00.000-07:00

For June '06, the median home price in San Diego fell for the first time in nearly a decade and sales tumbled in Los Angeles County, according to just released real estate figures.

The median price of all homes sold in San Diego last month fell 1% from the same month last year to $488,000, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

The importance of this, is that the traditionally strongest real estate marketing time is from May through August. For a price drop to occur now,
can only be a harbinger of a much more pronounced drop as we enter into Fall/Winter.

I'm not selling my San Diego home, but have sold all my investment properties.

If one considers the BILLIONS in adjustable loans due for their first adjustment in 2007/8 combined with the huge percentage of 100%loans used to purchase at the height of our market....you have to worry!

But, than again what is so bad about a 20-30% decline in values if we are coming off 100% increase over the last five years?

I'll answer my own question....nothing so bad as long as you were not speculating, purchased beyond your means or refinanced you property at 90% or more of its high value.
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San Diego County home prices take a tumble

2006-07-03T05:52:00.000-07:00

SignOnSanDiego.com > News > Business -- San Diego County home prices take a tumble: "By Roger M. Showley
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
11:45 a.m. June 13, 2006
SAN DIEGO – San Diego County's home prices took their biggest tumble for any spring on record last month, DataQuick Information Systems reported Tuesday.
The median price of all homes sold in May was $490,000, down $15,000 from April, although it was still slightly higher than a year ago.

Sales slowed for the 23rd straight month on a year-over-year basis, reaching 4,217 transactions in new and existing homes and condos.
Local real estate agents reported about seven months' worth of unsold inventory, but argued that the pace of activity reflects a normal market rather than a crash. "

Global property cycle's peaked, Morgan Stanley says - MarketWatch

2006-06-29T07:51:00.000-07:00

Global property cycle's peaked, Morgan Stanley says - MarketWatch: "Growing evidence of real-estate 'bust'
Fallout for consumers and corporate profits, eonomist says
E-mail | Print | | Disable live quotes By Chris Oliver, MarketWatch
Last Update: 6:47 AM ET Jun 29, 2006

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Evidence is mounting that the global property cycle is turning down, as rising interest rates and heightened inflationary pressures combine to put the brakes on demand for real estate, according to a Morgan Stanley report.
The shift ushers in an end to what's been a six-year rally during which the twin forces of globalization and financial innovation fed an upturn in the property cycle that became a worldwide phenomenon, said economist Andy Xie, in an Asia Pacific strategy report released Thursday.
'Due to deflation shocks, global inflation has been low, which allowed major central banks to keep interest rates very low, in turn fueling property,' Xie said. 'As inflation picks up simultaneously around the world, interest rates are rising everywhere, and the property boom is turning into a bust.' "

Big Shock is on the Way!

2006-06-24T12:55:00.000-07:00

Payment Shock in Store For ARM Borrowers, More Foreclosures in Future? - NationalRealtyNews.com: "Payment Shock in Store For ARM Borrowers, More Foreclosures in Future?
Thursday, June 22, 2006 - By Staff Writer, National Realty News

STUART, FL - Many borrowers who mortgaged their homes with adjustable rate mortgages while rates were at historic lows will soon be in store for a payment shock and the economy overall will certainly feel the effects. Some experts say prepare for a rise in delinquency rates and foreclosures.

Bankrate.com reports that over the next 18 months, more than $1 trillion of adjustable-rate mortgages will be hitting their first reset date. Assuming the average loan amount is $200,000, that amounts to 500,000 mortgages. The typical homeowner will be forced to seriously readjust their monthly budget when they go from paying on an interest only loan or a loan with a low starting rate to one that now requires playing catch up on the principal. Many borrowers will simply not be prepared for a sudden change that may require them to pay double more than they paid the previous month for their mortgage. Industry experts say this will fuel another year of increases in mortgage delinquency rates and foreclosures.

The effects will be evident in the economy overall, as well. That consumer who is suddenly paying more for their mortgage - and who is already feeling the heat due to high fuel prices - is most likely forced to cut back on spending money elsewhere - especially for consumer products and services. "
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BUILDER CONFIDENCE FALLS

2006-06-22T06:51:00.000-07:00

The confidence level of the nation's home builders continues to decline in 2006, falling this month to its lowest reading since April 1995, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The seasonally adjusted HMI stands at 42, down four points from May's revised reading of 46. An HMI above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good versus poor. According to NAHB, declining demand from investors, rising mortgage interest rates, and continued affordability issues all contributed to the decrease in builders' outlook for the new home market.

All three HMI components declined in June. The component measuring sales expectations declined five points to 50, while the components gauging current single-family sales and buyer traffic decreased to 47 and 29, respectively. Home builder confidence edged down across the nation in June, and in the West builder confidence declined one point to a seasonally adjusted HMI of 61.
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estate - Poway real estate - Sacramento real estate - San Francisco real estate - Orange County real estate - San Jose real estate - Los Angeles real estate

Smart money is leaving the real estate market

2006-06-21T07:48:00.000-07:00

Rockford's Newspaper Rock River Times | rockford illinois news information: "Dr. Christopher Thornberg, a member of the forecast staff, told a blog called The Housing Panic: “Actually, what we are seeing is a very typical slowdown in the market so far—there is nothing particularly soft about it (the landing in bubble markets). The claim is that because unit sales are falling but prices are still going up, that this is an unusual slowing. The fact is that most breaking markets start with activity, and it takes three to four quarters for that to take all the wind out of price appreciation. How hard it will be, remains to be seen.”"
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estate - Poway real estate - Sacramento real estate - San Francisco real estate - Orange County real estate - San Jose real estate - Los Angeles real estate

49% Foreclosure Increase in San Diego

2006-06-20T08:21:00.000-07:00

Foreclosures Continue to Rise in Southern California, Says Default Research: "Real estate bubble continues to deflate in Southern California, expert says

RISMEDIA, June 20, 2006—The number of foreclosures escalated throughout Southern California, with a rise of 29.09% since January 2006, according to Default Research (www.defaultresearch.com), the rapidly growing real estate research company for foreclosure properties.

While Riverside had the highest increase of 56.45%, San Diego County had an increase of 49%, followed by Los Angeles up 16.2%.
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estate - Poway real estate - Sacramento real estate - San Francisco real estate - Orange County real estate - San Jose real estate - Los Angeles real estate

Interest Rates Set To Move Higher

2006-06-15T08:13:00.000-07:00

Inflation Outlook Likely to Push Rates Still Higher
Wednesday, June 14, 2006 - By Staff Writer, The Originator Times
Click to Review

STUART, FL – Mortgage professionals everywhere have been wondering if interest rates will continue to rise and whether the Fed will hike short-term rates for the 17th consecutive time on June 29.
Looking at this week’s key economic briefings and results, all signs points to yes. The Fed will likely increase short-term rates by a quarter of a point. Anticipating this action, the bond market is apt to similarly push long-term mortgage rates higher."
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Bubble Trouble? What to make of all the real estate trend news

2006-06-03T15:07:00.000-07:00

Bubble Trouble? What to make of all the real estate trend news: "Some economists -- typically, those who have staked their professional reputations on being dark-horse skeptics -- are predicting nothing short of a global economic apocalypse. Others -- often those on the take from the real estate industry -- scoff at such dire visions. Don't listen to the doomsayers, they say, 'we're in for a soft landing.'
But how these perspectives affect the average gal with a mortgage or the ordinary dude with a dream of buying his own house is anything but clear. So who do you listen to, and what does it all mean?
On a basic level, the real estate experts can't really quibble about the basic facts: Many once-hot markets are showing signs of a cold front this summer. The Federal Reserve Board is expected to raise interest rates again to ward off inflation, and banks have begun to curb their promiscuous dispensing of risky, low-down loans. These factors will contribute to making real estate less appealing to many investors. Sure, people still need to live in houses, but the people who need to pour extra dollars somewhere may take a breather from speculative acrobatics to search for other investment circuses. (Can you say 'oil futures' three times fast?) "
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Orange County real estate - San Jose real estate - Los Angeles real estate

Housing Cool-Down Is 'Orderly,' Fed Chief Says

2006-05-21T08:22:00.000-07:00

Housing Cool-Down Is 'Orderly,' Fed Chief Says: "Housing Cool-Down Is 'Orderly,' Fed Chief Says
By Tomoeh Murakami Tse
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, May 19, 2006; Page D01
Confirming what home buyers suspected and real estate sales figures have indicated for months, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said yesterday that the U.S. housing market was showing clear signs of cooling off.
Bernanke said the slowdown is 'moderate' and 'orderly' and pointed to the overall strength of the economy

Economist Dean Baker of the Center for Economic Policy and Research expressed concern that rising interest rates were squeezing homeowners who took out interest-only and adjustable-rate mortgages. Even when interest rates were at historically low levels, Baker said, stretched buyers were taking out exotic loans to get into pricey homes.

Baker said a rising inventory of homes in the Washington region could fuel a double-digit price decline if interest rates climb higher. Condo prices could fall by as much as 30 percent, and prices of single-family homes could drop by as much as 15 percent, he said.
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Inside Bay Area - Bay Area real estate sales hit 5-year low

2006-05-21T08:07:00.000-07:00

Inside Bay Area - Bay Area real estate sales hit 5-year low: "Bay Area real estate sales hit 5-year low
By Eve Mitchell, BUSINESS WRITER

Sundays — the days when many real estate professionals set up open houses — have been a lot quieter lately for Daniel Joe, a Redwood City-based Realtor.
Call it one of the hidden signs of the slowing real estate market, which last month saw the lowest level of Bay Area home sales in five years, according to a report Thursday from DataQuick Information Systems. It started last spring, when sales dropped off as the number of homes on the market began to rise and so did interest rates. Now sales are sliding, interest rates are even higher and prices are increasing at a lower rate.
When the housing market was hot, so was attendance by prospective buyers at open houses. Not so in today's cooling market.
'I don't see a whole bunch of people walking through the properties all at one time,' said Joe, who works at Realty World Hirsch & Associates in Redwood
City.
The Bay Area median price did reach a new record in April, DataQuick said. But the new peak of $628,000 is not that much to get excited about, given that sales volume dropped 25.1 percent from a year ago.
Some 8,358 new and resale condominiums changed hands in the Bay Area last month — the slowest April since 2001 when 7,193 homes were sold, and a 14.2 percent decline from March. "
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Five Year Low for San Diego Home Sales

2006-05-17T10:36:00.000-07:00

May 16, 2006La Jolla,CA----Home sales in Southern California decelerated in April to their slowest pace since 2001, the result of higher mortgage interest rates and less buyer urgency. Prices rose at a single-digit appreciation rate for the first time in more than four years, a real estate information service reported.
A total of 24,748 new and resale homes sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties in April. That was down 16.1 percent from 29,509 in March and down 21.3 percent from 31,431 in April last year.
The year-over-year sales decline was the steepest since April 1995, when home purchases slowed 24.0 percent. Last month's sales count was the lowest for any April since 24,120 homes were sold in April 2001. DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988, show an average April for the nineteen years saw 23,660 sales.
"March and April have shown us that the boom phase of this cycle is behind us, so now it's just a question of how the cycle ends. Right now it looks like changes in the real estate market are happening gradually. But there's a lot of uncertainty among analysts regarding the effect of higher interest rates and how fast the economy is generating demand in regional markets," said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president.

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San Diego Real Estate Foreclosures Jump!

2006-05-02T22:01:00.000-07:00

First-quarter foreclosure activity in the state jumped to its highest level in two years, including a nearly 60 percent rise in San Diego County, a real estate information service reported Tuesday. "A number of factors are driving defaults higher," said Marshall Prentice, president of La Jolla-based DataQuick. "The main one right now is that home values are rising more slowly than they have been the past couple of years, which makes it more difficult for homeowners to sell their homes and pay off the lender." According to DataQuick, lenders sent 18,668 default notices to California homeowners in the first three months of the year. That's a 23.4 percent increase over the previous quarter and a 28.7 percent jump over the same period last year. In San Diego County, lenders sent 1,533 default notices in the first quarter, a 59.7 percent jump over the same quarter of 2005, when 960 notices were sent.

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Home Builders Lose Confidence in Market

2006-04-21T13:20:00.000-07:00

Rising mortgage rates, weaker demand, and a growing inventory of unsold homes have pushed home builder optimism to its lowest point since November 2001, according to the National Association of Home Builder’s/Wells Fargo Housing Market index.

The index slid to 50 in April. In November 2001, it stood at 48. A year ago, by comparison, the index was at 67.

Confidence fell in all regions but the West, where a four-point gain to 70 partially offset a significant decline in the previous month, according to the NAHB.

The Midwest showed continued weakness, with a five-point decline to 32 in April. The Northeast posted a seven-point decline to 49, while the South posted a four-point decline to 55, but remained in the positive range.

Source: Reuters News (04/17/2006)
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Double Digit San Diego Home Sales

2006-04-19T09:49:00.000-07:00

For March 2006, The number of homes sold continued to drop across Southern California -- with the exception of Riverside County, which saw a 6 percent increase in home sales.

In San Diego County, there were 4,146 home sales last month. That represents a 17.4 percent drop from the 5,018 sales in March 2005.Across Southern California -- including Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura counties -- there were 29,509 home sales last month, down 9.7 percent from March 2005, when 32,674 homes were sold.

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Housing Sales Down - Homes for sale UP!

2006-04-14T11:00:00.000-07:00

Red-Hot Housing Markets Cooling Down(April 12, 2006) -- Housing that last year was selling in a matter of hours — Florida coastline condos, townhouses in Washington, D.C., and desert haciendas in Arizona — are now languishing on the market.Home sales have declined 20 percent in Florida, according to the Florida Association of REALTORS®. And in California, sales dropped 15 percent. Sales were off by 19 percent in Washington. D.C., and down 25 percent around Phoenix. Experts blame a number of factors, including a sell-off among investors, worsening affordability due to soaring property prices and rising interest rates. In Florida, last year’s active hurricane season discouraged some buyers.But economists note that while sales in some markets are weaker, they aren't collapsing — just settling into a normal market pace. Inventories are rising but not to an alarming level, and demand for homes is actually posting gains in cities where prices are still considered bargains, such as Indianapolis and Houston.Source: The Wall Street Journal, by Michael Corkery (04/12/06)

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Rates Higher!!!

2006-04-13T22:59:00.000-07:00

McLEAN, VA -- Freddie Mac released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market SurveySM in which the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.49 percent, with an average 0.6 point, for the week ending April 13, 2006, up from last week’s average of 6.43 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.91 percent. The 30-year FRM has not been higher since the week ending July 12, 2002, when it averaged 6.54 percent.The average for the 15-year FRM this week is 6.14 percent, with an average 0.5 point, up from last week’s average of 6.10 percent. A year ago, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.46 percent. The 15-year FRM has not been higher since the week ending June 13, 2002, when it averaged 6.17 percent.

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Buying a House - MSN Real Estate

2006-04-13T11:18:00.000-07:00

Buying a House - MSN Real Estate: "Los Angeles: The City of Angels has been described as the poster child for how a lack of new housing near employment centers can hurt an economy. Affordable housing has been an issue in the market for years. It's ranked as one of the least affordable places in the country to live, with housing prices consuming 91% of income, according to statistics from John Burns Real Estate Consulting. The median price of an existing single-family home was $568,000 at the end of 2005, the National Association of Realtors reports. Plus, job growth is virtually flat. Together, it's cause for real estate market consultant Gollis to predict that the prices for California coastal markets are topping out in single-family homes. Fortune predicts a drop-off of nearly 8% in housing prices in the next two years, putting it in 95th out of 100 markets for growth."

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Home inventory way up!

2006-04-10T23:35:00.000-07:00

Rising inventory of unsold homes points to a cooling of the market: " Kathleen Pender Sunday, April 9, 2006 In another sign that the real estate market is cooling -- but not collapsing -- the inventory of unsold homes in California is roughly double what it was a year ago. Inventory is calculated by dividing the number of homes for sale in a region by the number of homes that have closed escrow in the past month. It tells you how many months it would take hypothetically to sell all the homes on the market. Statewide, the inventory of unsold single-family homes in February was 6.7 months, up from 3.2 months in February of last year.

'For the better part of 2005, it was in the 3- to 3.5-month range,' says Robert Kleinhenz, deputy chief economist with the California Association of Realtors. 'We saw a rather dramatic increase at the state level beginning in January of this year and continuing in February.'

Inventories are generally higher in Southern than in Northern California. "

Two-Thirds of Lenders Nationwide Say U.S. in Midst of Real Estate Bubble

2006-04-09T22:28:00.000-07:00

Two-Thirds of Lenders Nationwide Say U.S. in Midst of Real Estate Bubble: "RISMEDIA, April 6, 2006—Two-thirds of lenders nationwide believe a real estate bubble currently exists in the United States - and half of them believe it has already begun to burst or will burst in the next six months, according to the results of this quarter's Phoenix Management 'Lending Climate in America' Survey.

A significant 93 percent of lenders surveyed expect an anticipated housing correction to result in real estate prices declining 10 to 20 percent across the country.

'In the minds of lenders, the housing bubble has moved from 'Loch Ness monster' myth status to an economic reality that could have a significant, negative impact on the lives of many Americans,' said Michael E. Jacoby, Managing Director and Shareholder of Phoenix Management Services. 'A year ago, 46 percent of lenders believed we were in a housing bubble. Today, that number has climbed to 66 percent - and many of them believe a correction is imminent and could lead to a drop in housing prices of up to 20 percent.'

When asked when they believed the housing bubble would burst, thirty percent of lenders said it has already begun to happen. Twenty percent predicted it would occur in the next one to six months, and 27 percent thought it would happen seven to 12 months from now. Nine percent said it would occur in 2007.

Among the 92 lenders who participated in this quarter's survey, only nine percent said they did not believe a housing bubble existed. "

30 Year Mortgage Rate Jumps

2006-04-07T11:03:00.000-07:00

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped to 6.43 percent from 6.35 percent during the week ended April 6, according to Freddie Mac.Interest on 15-year fixed loans edged up to 6.10 percent from 6 percent over the same period. Meanwhile, the one-year adjustable mortgage rate rose to 5.57 percent from 5.51 percent; and the five-year hybrid ARM surged to 6.11 percent from 6.02 percent. Source: The Wall Street Journal (04/07/06)